Friday, September 03, 2004

Bounce

A new poll done by TIME shows the President got a good bounce after the convention. Margin of error +/-3%.

For the first time since the Presidential race became a two person contest last spring, there is a clear leader, the latest TIME poll shows. If the 2004 election for President were held today, 52% of likely voters surveyed would vote for President George W. Bush, 41% would vote for Democratic nominee John Kerry, and 3% would vote for Ralph Nader, according to a new TIME poll conducted from Aug. 31 to Sept. 2.


11 points, that's a heck of a bounce, especially in light of every pundit thought he may get a 5 point jump.

Let's take a look at the specifices.
When asked what they consider are the most important issues, 25% of registered voters cited the economy as the top issue, followed by 24% who cited the war on terrorism as the top issue. The situation in Iraq was rated the top issue by 17% of registered voters, moral values issues such as gay marriage and abortion were the top issue for 16% of respondents, and health care was the most important issue for 11% of respondents.

The economy: 47% trust President Bush more to handle the economy, while 45% trust Kerry.

Fairly split with margins of error. Basically split down party lines.
Health care: 48% trust Senator Kerry to handle health care issues, while 42% trust Bush.

Well, this one is a democratic issue, I'd be surprised if Bush had he lead on this one.
Iraq: 53% trust Bush to handle the situation in Iraq, while 41% trust Kerry.

This one actually surprises me. 12 points is quite a lot.
Terrorism: 57% trust Bush to handle the war on terrorism, while 36% trust Kerry.

Okay, on this issue, we have a clear winner. 21 points. This too surprises me. To hear the daily news, half the country doesn't like the way Bush has handled the war on terror.
Understanding the needs of people: 47% said they trust Kerry to understand the needs of people like themselves, while 44% trusted Bush to understand their needs.
Within the margin of error so, basically even.
Providing strong leadership: 56% said they trust Bush to provide strong leadership in difficult times, while 37% said they trust Kerry to provide leadership in difficult times.
Another surprise. 19 points is huge. Again, I thought this would be much closer.
Tax policy: 49% trust Bush to handle tax policy, while 40% trust Kerry.
Outside of the margin of error but, still close.
Commanding the Armed Forces: 54% said they trust Bush to be commander-in-chief of the armed forces, while 39% said they trust Kerry.

Another surprise, well, not really. More people do trust republicans when it comes to the Armed Forces.

I don't hold much to polls but, this is a heck of a good thing for the President.

UPDATE:
Captain Ed and McQ have more.